IREN Stock Trading Plan: Support, Targets & Breakdown Levels
Review the IREN stock trading plan, including the $35.50 support level, bullish price targets, bearish breakdown levels, and key risk-management rules.
STOCK ANALYSIS
IREN Stock Trading Plan: Key Support, Upside Targets, and Bearish Breakdown Levels
Why IREN Is Moving
The primary catalyst appears to be disappointing fiscal Q4 earnings released after Thursday’s close.
The reported results included:
Adjusted loss of $0.74 per share, versus the expected $0.49 loss
Revenue of $137.2 million, versus the expected $142.32 million
Revenue down from $187.3 million in the comparable period
A reported $684 million net loss, driven largely by noncash impairments connected to decommissioning Bitcoin-mining hardware
The market is also reacting to the company’s transition from Bitcoin mining toward AI cloud infrastructure. That transition may create a larger long-term opportunity, but it is producing near-term disruption as mining hardware is decommissioned and capital is redirected toward GPU deployments.
Bottom Line
IREN is selling off because the earnings miss and large reported loss are overriding the longer-term AI growth narrative for now. The important question from here is whether the company can convert its AI cloud contracts and capacity expansion into revenue quickly enough to offset the cost of moving away from Bitcoin mining.
IREN Trading Plan: Bullish Support and Bearish Breakdown Levels
For this plan, the reference price is approximately $38.00. The primary decision point is the $35.50 support area.
The bullish setup depends on IREN pulling back toward $35.50, holding that level, and then reclaiming upside levels with confirmation. If $35.50 fails, the focus shifts to the downside targets below.
Bullish Scenario
The bullish setup is active if:
IREN pulls back into the $35.50 area
Buyers defend that level
Price holds above the support zone instead of closing decisively below it
IREN begins making higher lows
Price reclaims $37.75 with follow-through
The upside targets are:
$37.75: First reclaim and confirmation level
$40.50: Initial upside target and psychological resistance
$41.60: Next resistance area
$45.00: Larger continuation target
$49.00: Extended upside target
A move into $35.50 is not automatically a buy signal. The setup improves when the level holds, sellers fail to push price lower, and buyers reclaim the nearby resistance levels.
Bearish Breakdown Scenario
The bearish setup activates if IREN loses $35.50 and fails to reclaim it.
The preferred breakdown confirmation is:
A decisive move below $35.50
A 5-minute candle close below the level
A failed retest of $35.50 from underneath
Continued lower highs after the breakdown
If price breaks below $35.50 and rejects a retest, the bearish target levels are:
$34.50: First downside target
$33.60: Second downside target
$32.50: Third downside target
$30.75: Major continuation target
$28.93: Larger daily support and final downside target in this plan
These should be treated as reaction zones rather than exact reversal points:
$34.40–$34.60
$33.50–$33.70
$32.40–$32.60
$30.60–$30.90
$28.80–$29.10
Bearish Invalidation
The bearish scenario weakens if IREN:
Reclaims $35.50 quickly after breaking below it
Holds back above $35.50
Forms a higher low above the breakdown level
Reclaims $37.75 with strong follow-through
A breakdown that immediately recovers back above $35.50 should be treated as a failed breakdown rather than chased lower.
Execution Rules
Do not enter solely because price touches $35.50.
Wait for a hold, rejection, or reclaim confirmation.
If short after a confirmed breakdown, consider taking partial profits at each downside target.
Avoid chasing a gap directly into one of the bearish target zones.
Once a target is reached, reassess price action instead of assuming the next target will automatically print.
Define the maximum dollar risk before entering.
Keep the bullish and bearish scenarios separate; do not hold a bullish thesis after the support failure is confirmed.
Key Takeaways
$35.50 is the main decision level.
Holding $35.50 supports a move toward $37.75, $40.50, $41.60, $45.00, and $49.00.
Losing $35.50 opens potential downside toward $34.50, $33.60, $32.50, $30.75, and $28.93.
The cleanest bearish setup is a breakdown followed by a failed retest of $35.50.
The broader company background, including AI infrastructure and Bitcoin exposure.
Options Trading Plan
Barish Setup
Buy the Weekly Put
Contract
Buy 1 Sept. 4 $35 put
Friday quote:
Bid: $1.21
Ask: $1.27
Midpoint: $1.24
Midpoint breakeven at expiration: $33.76
Approximate maximum risk at the midpoint: $124 per contract
Delta: approximately -0.415
Implied volatility: approximately 88.1%
Open interest: 2,041 contracts
Use a limit order; do not chase a wide opening move.
Entry Trigger
Preferred entry:
IREN breaks below $34.81, then fails to reclaim it.
Alternative entry:
IREN bounces into the $36.50–$38.05 zone and rolls back over.
Do not buy the put immediately if IREN gaps sharply lower Monday.
Wait for a bounce, failed reclaim, or clean consolidation breakdown.
Put Management
First underlying target: $32.00
Secondary target: $30.00
Take partial profits if IREN reaches the $32 area.
Consider closing the entire position if the put loses approximately 35%–40% from the entry price.
Invalidate the bearish setup if IREN reclaims and holds above $38.05.
Because this is a weekly option, time decay will accelerate quickly if IREN stalls.
Bulliish Setup
Buy the Weekly Call
Contract
Buy 1 Sept. 4 $36 call
Friday quote:
Bid: $1.21
Ask: $1.28
Midpoint: $1.245
Midpoint breakeven at expiration: $37.245
Approximate maximum risk at the midpoint: $124.50 per contract
Delta: approximately 0.478
Implied volatility: approximately 81.2%
Open interest: 123 contracts
Use a limit order, preferably near the midpoint.
Entry Trigger
Do not buy the call while IREN remains below $38.05.
Preferred entry:
IREN reclaims $38.05 and holds above it after the opening volatility settles.
Stronger confirmation:
A push through $39.48 with volume.
If IREN rejects $38.05, abandon the call idea rather than averaging down.
Call Management
First underlying target: $39.48
Secondary target: $42.24
Take profits into the first strong move rather than waiting until expiration.
Consider exiting if IREN loses $36.50 after triggering the bullish setup.
If IREN cannot hold above $38.05, the call thesis is invalid.
Weekly Risk Rules
The put is the preferred side while IREN remains below $38.05.
The call is a confirmation trade, not an oversold bounce trade.
Do not hold both positions simultaneously unless intentionally accepting straddle-like premium decay.
Risk only the premium you are fully prepared to lose.
A single-leg weekly option can lose nearly all of its value if the move does not happen quickly.
Recheck the live bid, ask, volume, and implied volatility Monday before entering.
My cleanest plan is:
Below $34.81: buy the Sept. 4 $35 put.
Above $38.05 and holding: buy the Sept. 4 $36 call.
Between those levels: no trade.