SPY Weekly Plan: Key Levels for Bulls & Bears Ahead of FOMC and PCE
SPY closed Friday July 24th at $738.93 with FOMC, PCE inflation, and mega-cap earnings all hitting this week. Get the key bull and bear levels, must-hold support, and options trade setups mapped to each catalyst.
OPTIONS TRADING
Weekly SPY Options Trading Playbook: Macro Catalysts & Core Levels
SPY Weekly Outlook: FOMC Rate Decision, PCE Inflation, and Mega-Cap Earnings Could Make or Break This Week:
SPY closed Friday at $738.93 — and this week could be the most volatile stretch of the entire summer.
Between a Federal Reserve rate decision, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, advance Q2 GDP, and earnings from four of the largest companies on the planet, SPY is staring down a wall of catalysts that will define the direction for weeks to come.
Here's what you need to know before Monday's opening bell.
The Catalyst Radar (30-Second Read):
- FOMC Rate Decision — Wednesday, July 29 at 2:00 PM ET. The Fed is widely expected to hold rates steady, but the statement and press conference will be dissected for any shift in tone. Markets are pricing in the path of future cuts, and any hawkish surprise from Chair Kevin Warsh could trigger an immediate risk-off move in equities. SPY closed below its key $740.15 daily support on Friday — a hawkish lean from the Fed could accelerate a breakdown toward $731.53.
- Core PCE Inflation — Friday, July 31. This is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the final major data point before the September meeting. Consensus expects core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year, down one-tenth from the prior reading. A hotter-than-expected print would reinforce the "higher for longer" narrative and put direct downside pressure on SPY. A cooler reading could be the fuel SPY needs to reclaim $740.15 and challenge overhead resistance at $749.53.
- Advance Q2 GDP — Thursday, July 30. The first look at second-quarter economic growth. Strong GDP combined with sticky inflation is the worst-case scenario for rate-cut hopes — it signals an economy running too hot for the Fed to ease. Weak GDP with cooling inflation is the goldilocks setup that could send SPY ripping higher.
- Mega-Cap Earnings Storm — Wednesday Through Thursday. Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta Platforms (META) report Wednesday after the close. Amazon (AMZN) and Apple (AAPL) report Thursday after the close. These four names collectively represent over 20% of the S&P 500's market cap. Their results and forward guidance will move SPY more than any single economic print. Microsoft and Meta reporting the same day as the Fed decision creates a potential double-whammy of volatility on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday's session.
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Full Trading Plan for $SPY:
Bull Setup (Longs)
Must Hold level: $731.53 — major support with 6 touches spanning 9 weeks. This is the line in the sand. If price loses this level, the bull thesis is invalidated.
Long trigger: reclaim and hold above $740.15 — Friday's close ($738.93) sits below this major support. Price needs to reclaim $740.15 and hold it as support before any long setup is valid.
Profit Target 1: $743.72 — Friday's session high / previous day high. First profit taking level on any reclaim push.
Profit Target 2: $749.53 — major resistance with 18 touches over 10 weeks. This is the heavy overhead supply zone and the primary target for the week.
Profit Target 3: $752.41 — major resistance with 13 touches. Secondary target if momentum carries through the $749.53 wall.
Bear Setup (Shorts):
Rejection level: $743.72 — Friday's session high. If price pushes into this level and gets rejected, that's the short entry trigger. A failed reclaim of $740.15 also qualifies.
Invalidation: a clean daily close above $749.53 — if price breaks through the 18-touch resistance, shorts are wrong and should exit.
Profit Target 1: $738.93 — Friday's close. Price should fall back to the close level on rejection weakness.
Profit Target 2: $731.53 — major support with 6 touches. The primary downside target and the bull must-hold level. This is where bears expect the strongest buyer defense.
Profit Target 3: $722.59 — major support with 3 touches from 6 weeks ago. Extended target if $731.53 fails to hold.
Key Context:
Friday closed at $738.93, below VWAP ($739.46) and in the lower 25% of the session range — sellers had control into the bell.
Price is currently sitting below the $740.15 major support, which means bears have a slight edge going into Monday unless bulls reclaim that level early.
The $740.15 level is the swing factor: hold above it as support → bull setup activates; reject and fail to reclaim → bear setup activates.
SPY Options Trades This Week: Calls, Puts, and Spread Setups
Here's the SPY options summary mapped to the weekly levels. All contracts expire Friday, July 31 — the same day as PCE inflation data, which means these contracts capture the full catalyst window.
Bull Side (Calls):
- 740C — $6.05 (delta .49, IV 16.8%) — This is the long trigger strike. Buy when SPY reclaims and holds $740.15. Breakeven at $746.05. Needs SPY to push through PDH at $743.72 to start profiting.
- 744C — $3.96 (delta .38, IV 15.8%) — Cheaper alternative if you want less premium at risk. This is the PDH strike — if SPY reclaims $740 and pushes through $743.72, this contract runs fast. Breakeven $747.95.
- 750C — $1.68 (delta .22, IV 14.1%) — The lotto play for Target 2 ($749.53 resistance with 18 touches). Cheap premium, high OI (16,448). Breakeven $751.67. If SPY rips through $749.53 on Fed or earnings, this contract can double or triple quickly.
- 752C — $1.17 (delta .17, IV 13.6%) — Even cheaper lotto for Target 3 ($752.41 resistance). Breakeven $753.16. Pure momentum play — only works if the breakout is strong.
Bear Side (Puts):
- 744P — $8.85 (delta -.62, IV 16.1%) — The rejection strike. Buy when SPY pushes into $743.72 (PDH) and gets rejected. ITM put with strong delta — moves hard on confirmation of the rejection. Breakeven $735.16. Expensive but highest probability if the bear thesis plays out.
- 739P — $6.49 (delta -.49, IV 17.4%) — ATM put. Good middle ground — cheaper than the 744P but still strong delta. Buy if SPY fails to reclaim $740.15 and starts rolling over. Breakeven $732.52, which lines up near the $731.53 must-hold support.
- 731P — $3.89 (delta -.32, IV 19.1%) — Maps to the must-hold / short target 2 level. Cheaper premium, breakeven $727.11. Best for a put spread setup — pair with selling a lower strike put.
- 723P — $2.28 (delta -.20, IV 20.8%) — The extended downside lotto. Maps to short target 3 ($722.59). Breakeven $720.73. Only pays if $731.53 support breaks cleanly and SPY flushes into the void below.
Spread Ideas (Defined Risk, Lower Cost):
- 740C / 750C Call Spread — Buy740C at $6.05, sell 750C at $1.68. Net cost ~$4.37. Max value $10 if SPY closes at or above $750 on Friday. Max profit ~$5.63 per contract. Risk $437 per spread.
- 744P / 731P Put Spread — Buy 744P at $8.85, sell 731P at $3.89. Net cost ~$4.96. Max value $13 if SPY closes at or below $731. Max profit ~$8.04 per contract. Risk $496 per spread.
- 744P / 723P Put Spread — Buy 744P at $8.85, sell 723P at $2.28. Net cost ~$6.57. Max value $21. Wider target but higher cost. Risk $657 per spread.
Frequently Asked Questions
1. What is the SPY ETF and why does it matter for traders?
SPY is the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust — the most heavily traded ETF in the world. It tracks the S&P 500 index, which means when you buy or sell SPY, you are trading a basket of the 500 largest publicly traded companies in the United States. SPY matters because it is the single most liquid vehicle for gaining exposure to the broader US stock market. Traders use it for day trading, swing trading, and hedging because of its tight spreads, deep options market, and near-constant volume. When the Fed speaks, inflation data drops, or mega-cap earnings hit, SPY is the first instrument that moves — and the one traders watch to gauge overall market direction.
2. What are the key support and resistance levels for SPY this week?
Based on daily timeframe analysis, the key levels to watch are support at $740.15 (major support, 2 touches), $731.53 (major support, 6 touches over 9 weeks), and $722.59 (major support, 3 touches). On the resistance side, the levels are $749.53 (major resistance, 18 touches over 10 weeks), $752.41 (major resistance, 13 touches), and $756.13 (major resistance, 9 touches). The $740.15 level is the swing factor — SPY closed Friday at $738.93, just below this level. If price reclaims and holds above $740.15, the bull setup activates. If price rejects there, bears target $731.53 and potentially lower.
3. How does the Federal Reserve rate decision affect SPY?
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meets Wednesday, July 29, and the rate decision drops at 2:00 PM ET. When the Fed holds rates steady but signals a hawkish tone in the statement or press conference, equities typically sell off because higher-for-longer rates mean tighter financial conditions, higher borrowing costs, and lower corporate earnings valuations. Conversely, if the Fed signals openness to future rate cuts, SPY usually rallies. The market moves most during the press conference when Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks — his word choice, tone, and emphasis on inflation versus employment data can move SPY several points in minutes. Traders should expect elevated volatility from 2:00 PM through the close on Wednesday.
4. What is Core PCE and why does it move SPY on Friday?
Core PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. It strips out volatile food and energy prices to measure underlying inflation pressure. The report drops Friday, July 31, which is also the last trading day of the week and options expiration Friday. Consensus expects core PCE at 3.3% year-over-year, down one-tenth from the prior reading. A hotter-than-expected print reinforces the higher-for-longer narrative and puts direct downside pressure on SPY. A cooler reading signals inflation is easing toward the Fed's 2% target, which could fuel a rally by increasing the probability of future rate cuts. Because PCE lands on expiration Friday, options gamma exposure amplifies the move — market makers hedging their books can create violent price swings in both directions.
5. Which SPY options should I trade during Fed and earnings week?
The options strategy depends on your directional thesis. For a bull setup, the SPY 740C (delta .49, premium $6.05) maps to the reclaim trigger level. Cheaper alternatives include the 744C at $3.96 and the 750C lotto at $1.68 for the $749.53 resistance target. For a bear setup, the 744P (delta -.62, premium $8.85) is the rejection strike, while the 739P at $6.49 offers a lower-cost ATM alternative. For defined-risk trades, the 740C/750C call spread costs approximately $4.37 with a max value of $10, and the 744P/731P put spread costs approximately $4.96 with a max value of $13. All contracts expire Friday, July 31 — the same day as the PCE report, which means these options capture the full catalyst window. Always size positions according to your risk tolerance and never risk more than you can afford to lose on a single trade.
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